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馬會終於開始公布了沿途走位 |
pmengineers
註冊於: 23/11/2002
發帖數目: 1020
|  發表於: 2008-05-28 on 01:54
Quote:
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On 2008-05-28 00:10, liup wrote:
... 請問能否代表
1. B駒末段時間較快; 或
2. A駒末段時間較快; 或
3. 不能肯定
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Liup,
Same opinion as yours that we do not agree MML's "induction".
But for your question, HKJC table already provides the times of L400m for horse A & B respectively, and you can tell which one is faster directly, no need to do any 馬位 +-x / ...
PM
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MML
註冊於: 05/04/2003
發帖數目: 5650
| 發表於: 2008-05-28 on 03:48
Thx liup and special thanks to PM who made the sophisticated charts.
Just wanted to emphasize the phrase "簡單推理". Should both horses travelled with "constant speed" in the final 450m, since the moment when "靚花紋" passed the 400m post, "強中霸" was shortening the distance between him and "輝煌贏" till the finish line. By simple induction, "強中霸" ran faster than "輝煌贏".
Perhaps PM read my mind by saying "... whether it was the preferential one or an intentional misleading one... ". And that's why I said in another thread that "輝煌贏"衝線時的確是最快的一駒. The gist of the discussion is : horses are NOT travelling with "constant speed" in the final 400m. As observed, "強中霸" sprinted most fastly not until 150m. In the final 100m, he ran even no faster than "得眾" (whose final section was only 23.4 sec. according to hkjc).
Thus, how would we interpret the final sections 22.9 & 23.1 of "輝煌贏" and "強中霸" respectively; and those of other horses? In my VF report, I remark the speeds of various horses ACROSS the finish line by means of gradings; and numerical figures are for reference only. In my record of R600, 輝煌贏 sprinted the best and the second one was 威財寶 (whose final section was only 23.4 according to hkjc) !
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liup
註冊於: 13/09/2003
發帖數目: 2628 | 發表於: 2008-05-28 on 09:59
Quote:
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On 2008-05-28 01:54, pmengineers wrote:
Quote:
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On 2008-05-28 00:10, liup wrote:
... 請問能否代表
1. B駒末段時間較快; 或
2. A駒末段時間較快; 或
3. 不能肯定
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Liup,
Same opinion as yours that we do not agree MML's "induction".
But for your question, HKJC table already provides the times of L400m for horse A & B respectively, and you can tell which one is faster directly, no need to do any 馬位 +-x / ...
PM
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PM, I tried to point out that MML's "簡單推理" does not always hold by giving a counter example. I am not talking about the final sectional times of 輝煌贏" and "強中霸" in this example and the answer to this question should be "3. 不能肯定(A或B駒末段時間較快).
We can't tell which horse will definitely have a better final sectional time even though the chasing horse has shortened the separated distances measured at the moments the leading horse reached the L400 post and finish line.
As illustrated in PM's sophisticated charts, whether or not the chasing horse (B駒 in this example) will have a shorter final sectional time is determined by 2 unknown factors:
1) after the leading horse has touched the wire, how fast does it run to complete the remaining distance ? "收韁" or "高速衝剌 is totally a different story;
2) after the leading horse has passed the L400 post, does it catch up or give up some space when it touched the L400 post?
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魔術師hkhorsetrack
註冊於: 21/09/2003
發帖數目: 3067
|  發表於: 2008-05-28 on 10:39
Quote:
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On 2008-05-28 00:52, pmengineers wrote:
hkjc says...來季方可給予馬迷「百分一秒」的精確度..... and some folks are expecting the following in the following year....
Say, a rough calcs:
1) A horse completes 1000m in 60 seconds.
2) His average running speed = 1000m/60sec
ie = 16.6 m per second
3) shooting "movie" = 25 frames per second
ie = 16.6 m per 25 frames per second
4) the distance travel by the horse within one frame of film = 16.6/25 m per frame
ie = 0.66m per frame
5) One frame = 0.04 sec
ie = 0.66m per 0.04 sec per frame
say, a horse neck = 0.66m approx
ie = a horse neck per 0.04m per frame
6) If A horse beat B horse by one neck, then image of B will print at one frame behind A .....
7) 「百分一秒」的精確度....
ie = 0.16 m per 0.01 sec which is around the length of a horse nose.
 「百分一秒」的精確度, 4 noses within one single frame can be clearly distinguished ....
9) 1 frame = 1 neck.... 1 frame = 4 noses...
Dear horsetrack, is that what you are expecting?
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First, 查左好耐字典先知上面幾條英文友講咩, 以下文字純粹在"粗略領悟"後而回應的.
For : PM -「百分一秒」的精確度......
yes, 我的確需要這個1 frame = 1 neck 的量度單位,
因為馬會網站的賽事片 frame 正是運用這個0.04格式, 而我也一直運用作馬匹能力推算.
我只是想馬會將既有條件的東西更有效DISPLAY 俾大家睇 (心裏想主要是我睇得方便 @.@)
上文我提過的：但畢竟現時的衝線時間仍維持在十分一秒, 這個正是問題根源所在
如果 輝煌贏 真的以1.42.00 衝線的話,
那麼 強中霸 應該在其0.22秒後才過終點, 所以 強中霸 完成時間應為1.42.22 ,
與馬會公佈的 1.42.2 接近, 但如果再拿 得眾 想比又如何呢 ?
得眾 在 強中霸 0.04秒後過終點, 1neck ma ! 所以 得眾 完成時間應為1.42.26 ,
但馬會roundup 後卻display 得眾 造1.42.3 ......
兩者相差了 0.1 秒.......... 超過半馬位........ 這個程度的偏差對我來說太多了,
因為要找 outstanding performance 馬匹的話, 0.1的影響度實在..........@.@
同樣地, 馬會職員為了迎合分段時間的總和等於完成時間的關係, 各分段時間會出現以上的偏差.
For : MML - 如果馬會公布的是 "@800m / 400m / 衝線" 時的速度, say in km/hr, 咁就 very good 嘞
yes, 我以前曾考慮過你提出的這些因素,
但對我來說時間實在不多(背負正職+兼職+兼職引伸出的兼職), 只能從成本效益著手(會計佬的作風),
http://www.hkhorsedb.com/cseh/modules.php?op=modload&name=Forum&file=viewtopic&topic=8861&forum=1
上面我曾講過, 如果"若斬來斬去都是樹枝, 倒不如找出樹幹好過.",
因為 outstanding performance 馬匹的表現實在突出, 有時不必去到mml 兄程度也能輕易看到吧,
反正大部份人都看不到樹幹. 
當然如果馬迷的質素提高至可以看到樹幹時, 我這類人會最先被淘汰
而mml 兄這類連樹葉上的紋都能看得清楚的人, 將會繼續留下. 
For : Liup
我真係英文差, 唔明你上面講咩啦........其他網友見到我呢個例子, 記得叫子女多讀書啊~ 
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pmengineers
註冊於: 23/11/2002
發帖數目: 1020
| 發表於: 2008-05-28 on 13:37
Quote:
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On 2008-05-28 03:48, MML wrote:
... In my record of R600, 輝煌贏 sprinted the best and the second one was 威財寶 ...
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Dear MML
哪哪哪，係就firm D，係唔係講今晚先?
pm字
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liup
註冊於: 13/09/2003
發帖數目: 2628 | 發表於: 2008-05-28 on 13:38
魔大師:
我一樣未能完全明白MML上面d雞腸想講乜! ^_^
老實講, 要深入描繪講述這樣技術性的問題, 祇用文字而沒有像PM的精細圖表附助, 任你用中英法韓日...或俄文, 都難以表達清楚。
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MML
註冊於: 05/04/2003
發帖數目: 5650
| 發表於: 2008-05-28 on 16:57
Quote:
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On 2008-05-28 13:37, pmengineers wrote:
Quote:
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On 2008-05-28 03:48, MML wrote:
... In my record of R600, 輝煌贏 sprinted the best and the second one was 威財寶 ...
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Dear MML
哪哪哪，係就firm D，係唔係講今晚先?
pm字
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Oops! 我無意推介今晚嘅"威財寶"。R600, 佢係表現好, 但該場只係中等五班水平, 而佢走位+步速形勢都已經非常理想, 唔受困有機會贏。今晚上四班, 排好位+108 LB 係憧憬因素, 但計 R600 及之前表現, 只是五班頂水平。我自己唔投注呢場。
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MML
註冊於: 05/04/2003
發帖數目: 5650
| 發表於: 2008-05-28 on 17:00
[quote]
On 2008-05-28 10:39, hkhorsetrack wrote:
Quote:
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... 只能從成本效益著手(會計佬的作風),
....我真係英文差, 唔明你上面講咩啦........其他網友見到我呢個例子, 記得叫子女多讀書啊~ ![]() |
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我會叫個仔多讀書, 不過可能叫佢唔好讀會計。  ^_^
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liup
註冊於: 13/09/2003
發帖數目: 2628 | 發表於: 2008-05-29 on 11:57
Quote:
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On 2008-05-28 17:00, MML wrote:
我會叫個仔多讀書, 不過可能叫佢唔好讀會計。 ^_^
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MML, 回想十幾年前在舍下笫一次見到你個仔, 當時小弟剛新居入伙而令郎又看來對d牆紙十分有興趣, 所以不覺地對他稍加注意, 雖然他這時祇是識行識走冇耐, 但已表現出是個很喜歡讀書寫字之人。^_^
話時話, 如果冇跳/留班, 他今年應該會考la wor, 在此先預祝他名列前茅!
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MML
註冊於: 05/04/2003
發帖數目: 5650
| 發表於: 2008-05-29 on 15:19
[quote]
On 2008-05-29 11:57, liup wrote:
Quote:
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MML, 回想十幾年前在舍下笫一次見到你個仔, 當時小弟剛新居入伙而令郎又看來對d牆紙十分有興趣, 所以不覺地對他稍加注意, 雖然他這時祇是識行識走冇耐, 但已表現出是個很喜歡讀書寫字之人。^_^
話時話, 如果冇跳/留班, 他今年應該會考la wor, 在此先預祝他名列前茅!
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Yep, 我都祝他好運。 咁好記性/數口嘅！
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