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隔山買牛 - 16/06/2010 S2 威爾斯親王錦標 |
liup
註冊於: 13/09/2003
發帖數目: 2628 |  發表於: 2010-06-16 on 16:20
Timeform - Royal Ascot 16/06/2010
http://home.comcast.net/~arthurliu/timeform.pdf
1.Allybar (愛利霸) Took form to another level in Meydan this year for Godolphin, beating Presvis in three-runner handicap and following up in a Group 3 (beat Crowded House), when again well ridden by Ahmed Ajtebi. Improved further when third (to Gloria de Campeao) in the Dubai World Cup after transferred from Saeed bin Suroor, but question marks over whether he can repeat that form back on turf in Britain
2.Byword (諺語) Typically progressive colt from the yard of Andre Fabre and looks a leading contender judged on his form this year, winning listed race and Group 2 on first two starts and then marking himself down as one to take seriously when pulling ten lengths clear with Goldikova in the Prix d’Ispahan. Beaten only half a length by the current Queen Anne favourite that day, giving her 3 lb, so very much the one to beat, the pair having left another couple of good-quality horses trailing
6.Mawatheeq (馬威極) Made up for lost time in 2009 with wins in a Doncaster handicap and the Cumberland Lodge Stakes at Ascot. Even better effort next time when beaten half a length by Twice Over in the Champion Stakes at Newmarket, but reportedly suffered an injury in February. Has the physique (big and rangy), pedigree (half-brother to Ghanaati from the family of Nashwan and Co.) and, most importantly, potential to have a highly productive 5-y-o campaign. Has a turn of foot to threaten most here if he’s on song, but absence a concern with trainer suggesting that it’s been a rush to get him back.
10.Twice Over (好事成雙) Always been highly thought of, but took until last autumn to land a long-awaited first Group 1 success, beating Mawatheeq by half a length in the Champion Stakes at Newmarket. Careerbest effort when third to Zenyatta in the Breeders’ Cup Classic next time, but wasn’t at his best when down the field in the the Dubai World Cup on reappearance, having challenged over a furlong out, and, acknowledging he’s a better horse now than when fourth in this last year, there are a coulple of lessexposed
ones here who make more appeal.
12.Shalanaya (莎莉雅) Hails from the up-and-coming stable of Mikel Delzangles, which hit the headlines when Makfi sprung a surprise in the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket, and is herself a Group 1 winner, landing the Prix de l’Opera at Longchamp as a 3-y-o. Encouraging reappearance second to Cutlass Bay in the Prix Ganay at the same course, ridden out with hands and heels after her rider dropped his whip, and, still relatively unexposed, could be one of few in the market who has been overpriced.
CONCLUSION
Twice Over (好事成雙) and Mawatheeq (馬威極), first and second home in last year’s Champion Stakes, are the pick on ratings, but the former’s figure looks an absolute maximum and there are a few in the field who have the potential to improve past him, not least Andre Fabre’s Byword (諺語), who is the selection on the back of his second to Goldikova last time. Though possibly flattered to get quite so close to the superstar filly, his performance is backed up by the clock and he is still unexposed, leaving scope for further improvement.
SELECTIONS
Quinella Box: 2諺語 + 6馬威極 + 12莎莉雅
Trio Wheel: 2諺語 > 1愛利霸 + 6馬威極 + 10好事成雙 + 12莎莉雅
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獲利rodney
註冊於: 14/09/2004
發帖數目: 2724 | 發表於: 2010-06-16 on 16:55
"太醒" 可有機會偷個冷P?? (assume : 場地乾快且利放)
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liup
註冊於: 13/09/2003
發帖數目: 2628 | 發表於: 2010-06-16 on 17:34
Quote:
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On 2010-06-16 16:55, rodney wrote:
"太醒" 可有機會偷個冷P?? (assume : 場地乾快且利放)
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"太醒"雖然近況佳, 但質素應已見底, 上仗(Gr3 - Blue Square Brigadier Gerard Stakes)輸俾Stotsfold入Q腳已搏得很盡, 今賽G1場合, 照我睇耍等兩三隻正路對手失準, 才有上名三甲機曾 
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liup
註冊於: 13/09/2003
發帖數目: 2628 | 發表於: 2010-06-16 on 22:56
Quote:
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On 2010-06-16 16:55, rodney wrote:
"太醒" 可有機會偷個冷P?? (assume : 場地乾快且利放)
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Salute!
Rodney 勁!!!
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獲利rodney
註冊於: 14/09/2004
發帖數目: 2724 | 發表於: 2010-06-16 on 23:05
liup,
才剛剛開會後趕回家，電視已打出派彩!! 
QPL 拖一對熱門都有 8xx!!!  !!!!
依昨晚觀察，場地真係好快，我覺得偏差唔細才提出這隻冷品，希望有HKDB網友受惠啦 
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船主~~home
註冊於: 13/03/2002
發帖數目: 9231 | 發表於: 2010-06-17 on 12:03
勁喎兩位，橫掂都係越洋，不用比埋今夜D波我啦..
 
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liup
註冊於: 13/09/2003
發帖數目: 2628 | 發表於: 2010-06-17 on 13:10
Quote:
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On 2010-06-17 12:03, home wrote:
勁喎兩位，橫掂都係越洋，不用比埋今夜D波我啦..
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船主, 咪玩啦, 你過d料黎益下hkdb網友就真係功德無量勒...
Quote:
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On 2010-06-16 23:05, rodney wrote:
....QPL 拖一對熱門都有 8xx!!! !!!!
依昨晚觀察，場地真係好快，我覺得偏差唔細才提出這隻冷品，希望有HKDB網友受惠啦
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如果有Rodney隻冷腳, QP及T應該好易中, 我都希望有hkdb兄弟因此得益。
一直以來我很欣賞和佩服Rodney對賽事之解讀及分析能力, 今倘講到場地偏差, 純粹想偷師好奇一問:
15號晚香港轉播果四場Royal Ascot賽事, 途程由5f至1m, 都係用全直路賽道, 除非出馬好大陣仗, 馬匹一般都曾依看台外欄果邊跑。今場係跑1m2f, 除需要轉兩個急彎外, 相反地馬匹會依內欄競跑(類似沙田一千米直路和二千米轉彎賽), 何解前四場者直路賽之場地偏差情況可以引用於今場1m2f轉彎賽事呢? 
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獲利rodney
註冊於: 14/09/2004
發帖數目: 2724 | 發表於: 2010-06-18 on 23:30
liup 兄,
咪玩啦。好明顯是符碌 之作啦!!
見你出post，所以咪支持下。
有一點更正，當晚香港的直播不是全直路，有一場千六是轉灣的。
憑當晚的觀察，確實有一點點符合我的假設，其中包括場地及風向 。
其實小兄即時與 臨場 兄於MSN交流
當晚投注"自由之路"的3重彩及單T，只差一點點  。從賽事中再進一步確認。
其實今年馬會有很多的海外直播，我發覺不論澳洲，新西蘭，杜拜，英國或美國，個個馬場都有一定的場地偏差，有些甚至是嚴重偏差，只要細心觀察，當有機會博下冷門
明晚又有幾場，可惜又要睇世盃，無乜時間細心刨
你點睇隻以下的馬匹:
S1-2 Duncan
S1-3 High Standing
但 S1-3的金禧，我都偏愛港馬，所以無乜值博，除非因為馬匹多"鳥語花香"無法有空位。 反之愛駒 "Joy and Fun"可前置，且倍率合理
一切選擇還需依據明晚的場地狀況
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liup
註冊於: 13/09/2003
發帖數目: 2628 | 發表於: 2010-06-19 on 14:22
Re: 見你出post，所以咪支持下
Rodney, 多謝捧場! 暑假後返港搵你飲荼
Re: 有一點更正，當晚香港的直播不是全直路，有一場千六是轉灣的
係喎! 聖詹姆士皇宮錦標 1600米果場係用另一條轉彎賽道, 因趕住要返工, 冇睇呢場轉播添, 多謝更正。
Re: 你點睇隻以下的馬匹:
S1-2 Duncan
S1-3 High Standing
S1-2 Dunca (鄧肯) - 近態賽績兼備, 嬴或不易, 但上名機會頗高, 應該有d分頭, QT腳上佳選擇。呢場我較睇好Alainmaar(愛良馬), 雖未有級際賽賽績支持, 但近績殊佳和正在進步階段, 隻馬有幾多仲未知, 今場應有不錯上名機會。
S1-3 High Standing (顯赫尊崇) - 唔錯丫, 近績佳有分頭, 但我個人就不大喜歡果騎師"史賓沙"。係近禸欄跑果堆中, 除此駒外, 可留意Fleeting Spirit (認真態度)及Main Aid (重大目標), 至於近看台外欄跑果邊, 除左香港雙雄"烏語風采"外, 論實力應數到Starspangledbanne(花旗)及Showcasing(展雄才)呢兩匹主隊希望。
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liup
註冊於: 13/09/2003
發帖數目: 2628 | 發表於: 2010-06-19 on 14:30
手文之誤, Fleeting Spirit係"快馬精神"至o岩 
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