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明天有一匹參賽馬適合 戴勝 發揮 |
HenryLaw
註冊於: 04/01/2007
發帖數目: 129
|  發表於: 2007-01-04 on 18:22
Dear Commrades,
Thank you for your kind encouragement.
My only worry (yes, singular) on Smacko's winning chance this Sunday is a CRAWLING race that might go 26 & change, 25 & change, 24-25, 25 & change before arriving at the top of the lane. If this happened, my nightmare will come true, seriously hope this is NOT GOING TO HAPPEN. Then again, looking at the field again, a pretty pathetic one if you ask me, there is every reasons to believe it is going to be very very very very slow. I am hoping and looking to have at least 6 to 1 or more to have a crack at him, I dropped too much last time over the dirt over a mile, which I thought is going to be very fast up front but turned out to be another slowly run event and he was beaten before the home turn, too damn bad for me. But we are also talking about DYE, right!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Anyway, if he does not win or even go close (better that way if he lose, bigger odds next out) I am hoping he SCORE a big one over very very wet Turf or may be dirt (not too good from come-from-behind horses in HK dirt races) based on his past record and genetic background BEFORE other punters realised what he fancy.
Like to hear from you all.
Thanks
Henry
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獲利rodney
註冊於: 14/09/2004
發帖數目: 2724 | 發表於: 2007-01-04 on 18:22
Quote:
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On 2007-01-04 17:59, MML wrote:
.........
At first glance of the racecard, the wide draw seems to be a big challenge.
I need more time to study the race. Will come later for discussion. 
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mmL,
你的專業精神真令人敬佩! 我一見2000m就已經投降 (雖然被編於孖T場合!!)
不過，有隻馬想提下:
Red Pepper - 上場賽前曾停操10日，但今次操練已回復正常。 只要際遇不太差，沿途2w，有望跑回R080場次的水準(該場的未段是22.7呢)!
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獲利rodney
註冊於: 14/09/2004
發帖數目: 2724 | 發表於: 2007-01-04 on 18:22
Quote:
|
On 2007-01-04 17:59, MML wrote:
.........
At first glance of the racecard, the wide draw seems to be a big challenge.
I need more time to study the race. Will come later for discussion.
|
|
mmL,
你的專業精神真令人敬佩! 我一見2000m就已經投降 (雖然被編於孖T場合!!)
不過，有隻馬想提下:
Red Pepper - 上場賽前曾停操10日，但今次操練已回復正常。 只要際遇不太差，沿途2w，有望跑回R080場次的水準(該場的未段是22.7呢)!
![]()
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HenryLaw
註冊於: 04/01/2007
發帖數目: 129
| 發表於: 2007-01-04 on 18:30
Dear Rodney,
Red Pepper is an OVER THE HILL miler who has done well over a distance of ground when faced against lower quality runners.
Judging from his latest outing, he was ridden perfectly by Mosse, really perfect until the last 200m, he kicked but soon given up the chase, his early season WIN was a one-off stable magic, I am not keen with his chances here even though this is another weak field.
Henry
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獲利rodney
註冊於: 14/09/2004
發帖數目: 2724 | 發表於: 2007-01-04 on 18:48
[quote]
On 2007-01-04 18:30, HenryLaw wrote:
Dear Rodney,
Red Pepper is an OVER THE HILL miler who has done well over a distance of ground when faced against lower quality runners.
Agreed with your viewpoint.
...... his early season WIN was a one-off stable magic,.....
I still have "little hope" on his ablility since the trainer has spent 2 seasons in putting him in class -3 and would surely urge for more than "one shot", similar to the case of 豪俠本色。 Maybe I'm too subjective, I believe that Red Pepper at the rating of 71 is still competitive, especially with MOsse!!
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JimmyMa
註冊於: 29/09/2006
發帖數目: 5345
| 發表於: 2007-01-04 on 19:28
Quote:
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On 2007-01-04 16:21, HenryLaw wrote:
My apology of using English in replying you experts. It would take me real long to use the Chinese writing pad, but, if you prefer I will try to respond in Chinese too in the future.
On the subject of Smacko 新馬威, I basically agreed with most of the points you folks brought on. I even went further to check his background and would like to share with you here before we 'miss' out the boat.
(1) He looks to be a one-dimension come-from-behind distance type who needs fast pace to be his best over both surfaces (turf and dirt)
(2) He will be MOST DANGEROUS on Off track, I am almost certain about it, as he and his half-brother Questo Sappore (Brz) by Jules are both HEAVY ground winner.
(3) He looks to be a late-maturing type who is still improving and adapting to the environment here.
(4) On breeding, his sire Clackson (Brz) by I Say (Group winner in England, White Rose S at Ascot, Red Deer H and Coronation Cup at Epsom all distance races and also ran THIRD to that mighty Sea Bird in the 1966 English Derby) who ran 18 times and never missed a cheque with 10 wins, 4 seconds and 4 thirds in Brazil between 2 to 6 years of age. More importantly, Clackson was a SW at 2, 4, 5 and 6 but he is a much better horse over the dirt.
Then going down to his bottom line, his dam Infini (Brz) is not much of a race horse but still managed to win once from 13 starts.
As for his damsire Dynaformer, there is no need for my re-introduction, a top sire of turf and dirt horses, his babies EXCELLED when given plenty of time, they are at their best at the age of 5.
(5) Back to 新馬威 local races here, he has shown enough in the past 3 races and I am convinced he is most dangerous when racing a distance of ground 9-10f (1800-2000m) or further (too bad the racing programme here do not help, I am most disappointed with the distance races development here unless something drastic is introduced by the HKJC Boad of Management, but knowing full well what the public and the owners want, this is NOT GOING TO HAPPEN any sooner)
(6) Most important point for this Sunday's race, with new rider 高雅志 on, I would not doubt for a moment about his 'Winning Intention' even though I am expecting a SLOW PACE (not enough pacemakers) and drawn 14.
Thank you
Henry
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Thank you very much for your fully backgroud informations for the horse of Smacko. For normally, if you used the english to replying me that is no problem for me.
1) 我個人對馬血統不太注重, 但也會作為研究的
一個數據.
2) 此馬也曾在快.好地上名, 應該冇問題.
3) 我相信馬主何唔會入錯貨.
4) 此馬是大馬, 相信狀態一起, 今場會继續進步.
5) 用恩伯伯在全無飛下, 仍然走近, 肯定在班次
佔有便宜.
6) 未跑之前, 步速大家都是靠估, 今場帶頭應該是
世纪巨星一隻, 會否又俾佢用超慢步速和負超
輕磅帶到呢?
一切都是個謎, 星期日就可將依個謎底解開啦
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JimmyMa
註冊於: 29/09/2006
發帖數目: 5345
| 發表於: 2007-01-04 on 20:23
Quote:
|
On 2007-01-04 18:22, rodney wrote:
Quote:
|
On 2007-01-04 17:59, MML wrote:
.........
At first glance of the racecard, the wide draw seems to be a big challenge.
I need more time to study the race. Will come later for discussion.
|
|
mmL,
你的專業精神真令人敬佩! 我一見2000m就已經投降 (雖然被編於孖T場合!!)
不過，有隻馬想提下:
Red Pepper - 上場賽前曾停操10日，但今次操練已回復正常。 只要際遇不太差，沿途2w，有望跑回R080場次的水準(該場的未段是22.7呢)!
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是否應該是 " 上場賽後曾停操10日 "? 葉楚航馬
極少, 極少, 一隻馬跑完要抖10日咁耐才可復課,
是否有問題要問佢至知? 今朝獨此戰馬重走出外
圈慢跳, 明早最後試跑, 又睇下佢點跳. 
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HenryLaw
註冊於: 04/01/2007
發帖數目: 129
| 發表於: 2007-01-04 on 20:28
Dear Rodney,
I won't discourage you from backing Red Pepper as you say he is rated at 71 and he was a top-class horse before, so, there should be something (little or more) in the tank, anyway, this is RACING right!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Dear Jimmy,
Thank you for your kind understanding. I know many folks here do not care too much about pedigree, I just happen to study everything and merely wanted to HIGHLIGHT something that is not too obvious before his odds dropped to nothing on WET ground (even though this is an open secret). Too bad this is a nothing more nothing less a BETTING industry here (for sure NO ENTERTAINMENT) hence pedigree study and/or knowledge is often overlook, dispise and hated by many, but, allow me to remind you, I cashed in on some very juicy price winners in Hong Kong when they are not exposed on breeding, I say no more.
Thank you for listening.
Henry
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pmengineers
註冊於: 23/11/2002
發帖數目: 1020
| 發表於: 2007-01-04 on 21:58
Regarding Red Pepper & Smacko, Henry & Rodney, both you may have interest on the following article presented by Mr. FY Cheung in MingPao today:
紅辣椒返勝途無保留（2007-1-4）
日前「俊歡騰」贏出千四米，時間接近全港紀錄，早已指出此駒由於段速所限，很難贏千六米，反而千四及千八米才首本。
同樣地，有一些馬匹可跑沙田千六至二千米，但千八米卻跑不好，原因也是段速，而段速是受場地彎位影響，所以「俊歡騰」可贏谷草一六五○米及泥地一六五○米。
以十歲老馬「紅辣椒」而言，歷來五捷，兩次是千六米，三次是二千米，跑十次千八米只得一次季軍，所以上仗於國際賽日在千八米跑第四已是極出色，這馬盛年曾上一二二分，只贏五場是因不幸與「靚蝦王」同年代，以千六米乾快地平磅而言，「紅辣椒」無法贏「靚蝦王」的，而當時「紅辣椒」尚未養成二千米長力，近年有長力才專攻二千米三捷，包括季初平磅下贏「赤胆福星」一馬位。
今仗兩駒再同場，「赤胆福星」受讓兩磅可將機會扯成平手，而「赤胆福星」是另一匹可跑千四米以上任何路程而千六米首本，二千米次之，千八米不合段速，七捷中亦以千六米次數最多，但跑八次千八米無一次入三甲。
沙田千四至千八米之檔位次要，老張不會執着內檔好，「俊歡騰」元旦日也是十四檔贏出，但沙田草地二千米及泥地一六五○米，檔位比較重要，以二千米而言，如抽十三、四檔只有兩個極端跑法，就是如有速度切入彎位佔欄，又或是出閘捉實馬匹留前鬥後，甚難居中或守二三位跑，所以二千米排位相當重要，直接支配了一場賽事的跑法。
沙田二千米只比千八米多二百米，但所需氣量相距不多，因為二千米有兩個大彎合共八九百米，馬匹甚少發力，多是排隊入彎，排隊出彎，但於那段回氣正是爭勝之元素。所以如果「紅辣椒」今仗仍抽中檔以內，必可居中跑而有一定爭勝機會，如下雨跑淋地，機會再大大提升，十歲馬只剩下六個月競賽，最多跑多三五次，已無後顧之憂。
新馬威態勇後上惡
另一匹我會注視之馬匹是「新馬威」，前仗於谷草二二○○米後上甚勁跑第五，上仗泥地一六五○米大熱死火，這匹巴西馬狀態甚勇，如抽十檔以外必決心留前鬥後，也可入三甲。此外，初步也看好「康樂神駒」。
Afterall, awaiting MML's view.
pm
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獲利rodney
註冊於: 14/09/2004
發帖數目: 2724 | 發表於: 2007-01-05 on 00:50
Quote:
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On 2007-01-04 20:23, JimmyMa wrote:
是否應該是 " 上場賽後曾停操10日 "? 葉楚航馬
極少, 極少, 一隻馬跑完要抖10日咁耐才可復課,
是否有問題要問佢至知? 今朝獨此戰馬重走出外
圈慢跳, 明早最後試跑, 又睇下佢點跳.
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上賽後休息10日，可能是老馬拼後要回氣吧！尤幸還連拍2課，相信沒有問題。
但我所指出是前賽拼後，此馬亦休息了幾天才開始踱步，於11月連操多課且課期正常，但於11月尾至12月頭"突然"有10天只踱無跳??
我於上賽前已懷疑是否馬匹健康問題還是特意儲新鮮感?!!
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