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Hong Kong Horse Database Forum Index >> 香港賽馬 >> Do You Like To Play Dirt Race In Hong Kong
Author Do You Like To Play Dirt Race In Hong Kong
HenryLaw









註冊於: 04/01/2007
發帖數目: 129
Hong Kong & North America
發表於: 2007-01-05 on 02:01
Dear All,

I personally love this game in Hong Kong as in general, the public hates to handicap the dirt races partly due to the poor preaching of so many popular TV commentators who are giving ignorant personal comments to the public just because they can't any dirt winners with any confident. Oh, we don't have enough data, or Oh the dirt track is not consistent, or Oh the horses are lower quality hecks, or Oh whatever damn stupid reasons they can come up with. In plain Cantonese, 'when one can't shit properly, they blame the ground is too hard'.

Thanks to these 'top' (exactly the opposite) TV commentators, I cashed in some solid winners at higher odds than I deserved. Often enough, I have winners that is supposed to pay 4-1, I had them 50 to 75% better and paid 6 to 7-1. In fact, I am not that smart at all, it is the public who are generous enough not to bet on these good winners with confident.

I really like your views on the dirt game.

Henry








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MML









註冊於: 05/04/2003
發帖數目: 5650
HK
發表於: 2007-01-05 on 02:37
RE: .... Oh, we don't have enough data, or Oh the dirt track is not consistent ...

I think these are the facts.

I did pick 新馬威 the first time when he raced on the dirt earlier. Frankly speaking, I didn't have strong confidence.

On the other hand, when there is sufficient data, dirt horses are more consistent.


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HenryLaw









註冊於: 04/01/2007
發帖數目: 129
Hong Kong & North America
發表於: 2007-01-05 on 02:43
Dear MML,

So glad you agree on the consistency of dirt runners as you have to be very fit to win a dirt race.

Too bad there are not enough dirt races to 'build' up the dirt data base for the general public.

Henry


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心中有運winner5a









註冊於: 02/01/2006
發帖數目: 113
發表於: 2007-01-05 on 12:23
當一匹馬跑完泥地,而該場表現不錯的話,我個人自己就會highlight佢,因為練馬師下場或者連續回報草地賽事,一黎可能係misleading,二黎可能係賽程比較。而賠率相對地通常都會幾好分

總之當佢再次踏足泥地而分頭唔錯的話,我會以佢為主力買win,place,或者做Q膽。

最印象深刻係 沾沾自喜 2004/10/30,R132跑第四
http://www.hkjc.com/chinese/racing/results.asp?racedate=30/10/2004&raceno=03

2004/11/10, R162,再跑泥地,輸左

李易達回報三場草地之後,再報跑泥地 R444,輸win中place

上季也有幾個例子,但係依家無時間找回有關資料,(小弟今季開始才記錄自己投注過咩馬) 。

今次賽事,都有一匹曾經在泥地有好賽績而未建功的馬,就係第六場隻 快都,(雖然佢無回報草地賽事) ,但係都要留意。


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HenryLaw









註冊於: 04/01/2007
發帖數目: 129
Hong Kong & North America
發表於: 2007-01-05 on 14:52
Dear 心中有運winner5a,

I have been following 快都 for at least 12 months. He has trialed well over the dirt many times, showing decent early speed and finished well.

But you know this is 梁定華 and 嚴顯強 and they drawn 10 over a mile on the dirt. Well as much as I like their chances to win, I probably going to put this horse in my exoctic bets (Q/QP/Trio) field ONLY. Unless he goes over double-digit (10-1) or more, then I will consider play each way.

What do you guys think?????

Henry


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MML









註冊於: 05/04/2003
發帖數目: 5650
HK
發表於: 2007-01-05 on 17:10
Quote:

On 2007-01-05 12:23, winner5a wrote:
.......

今次賽事,都有一匹曾經在泥地有好賽績而未建功的馬,就係第六場隻 快都,(雖然佢無回報草地賽事) ,但係都要留意。



「快都」的最大障礙是嚴顯強, 其次是 10檔。
華廐馬匹主要分佈於 4, 5班馬, 為達致妥善分流效果, 我估「快都」、「幸運吉祥」等會取代以往的「華威」、「天目」主攻泥地, 所以在草地"隔草"的情況會較少。


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