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14/3/07 周三 八賽賽事分析 |
上帝禁區joey909kl
註冊於: 13/05/2003
發帖數目: 2105 |  發表於: 2007-03-13 on 19:19
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On 2007-03-13 17:34, MML wrote:
(P.S. 側聞前仗 ST-1200, 薛達褀對"快上快"好有信心, 結果跑輸咗。)
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我上兩次都收倒好大瘋話去馬
個friend仲特 燈 call2次叫買 當然5班馬 我聽完就算
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cmyk
註冊於: 10/01/2005
發帖數目: 641 | 發表於: 2007-03-14 on 00:00
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On 2007-03-13 19:19, joey909kl wrote:
我上兩次都收倒好大瘋話去馬
個friend仲特 燈 call2次叫買 當然5班馬 我聽完就算
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講開收瘋今日無意中聽到有隻馬話跑31號田草千四,話上次谷草對果然好跟前左(唔知蓮華生輝會唔會同埋一齊出擊呢) 
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MML
註冊於: 05/04/2003
發帖數目: 5650
| 發表於: 2007-03-14 on 03:54
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On 2007-03-13 18:45, hkhorsecharity wrote:
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"前領型馬多, 利後上" 確是一個普遍認同的觀念....
曾經睇過一個鬼佬(所謂)步速專家(唔記佢個名)既分析, 純以pace pattern論不計其他偏差因素, 一場多前領型馬既賽事, 是否真的利後上, 還要看一些微觀因素, 佢既詳細論點論據已記不清楚, 好似係與以下情況有關:
(1) 該群前領型馬是否絕大部份有相若前速能力;
(2) 在該群前領型馬中, 有冇一匹既前速是較為顯著穾出;
(3) 又或者該批前領型馬中, 有冇一兩匹既前速較慢, 但相對地有較佳韌力....等等
小弟對步速係門外漢一名, 希望楊兄或其他專家們能就這方面賜教指引一下, 謝謝!
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所謂利後上，有無分利"幾後上"?例如利中前馬群，中後馬群，大後馬群，如果有得量化埋就好囉。
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Pace handicapping 大多將跑法分四類：
1. 放頭型 - Early, front runner, pace setter
2. 前置型 - Early presser, close stalker, stalker
3. 中置型 - Presser, mid-pack runner, middle
4. 後上型 - Sustained, closer, late closer
顧名思義, 所謂"利後上"即係合"後上型"跑法; 相反地說, 如果步速形勢不利於第4類"後上型", 字面上怎何叫做"利後上"?
留待撰文者 liup 再解說。
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Shatin
註冊於: 20/09/2003
發帖數目: 228 | 發表於: 2007-03-14 on 04:52
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On 2007-03-13 11:57, liup wrote:
曾經睇過一個鬼佬(所謂)步速專家(唔記佢個名)既分析, 純以pace pattern論不計其他偏差因素, 一場多前領型馬既賽事, 是否真的利後上, 還要看一些微觀因素, 佢既詳細論點論據已記不清楚, 好似係與以下情況有關:
(1) 該群前領型馬是否絕大部份有相若前速能力;
(2) 在該群前領型馬中, 有冇一匹既前速是較為顯著穾出;
(3) 又或者該批前領型馬中, 有冇一兩匹既前速較慢, 但相對地有較佳韌力....等等
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Most American pace handicappers would cheerfully admit their theories don't work all that well on grass. Most of them would admit that on grass late speed is of utmost importance.
In the case of a group of frontrunners, if there's a so-called "speed of speed", on dirt, that horse might gain a big enough advantage in the early part of race to secure the win. On grass, the race would most likely be won by one of the horses coming from behind.
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liup
註冊於: 13/09/2003
發帖數目: 2628 | 發表於: 2007-03-14 on 13:29
Thanks Shatin!
Yeah, the 1st scenario will favor the front runner who has the outstanding early speed and it is so called "Speed of the speed".
I finally found out that the 2nd and 3rd scenarios were some factors to be considered in Michael Pizzolla's "Pace and Position", a handicapping technique basing on the potential race scenarios. Mr. Pizzolla did admit that this technique works fine on dirt and his "Projected Power Fraction" is more preferable on turf.
The followings is a recap of the "Pace and Position" procedure:
(1) Assess the races where the various horses are on the lead.
(2) If there's only one or two horses that like the lead, one of those horses can potentially wired the field.
(a) If you have two horses that have been on the lead, see if one of them has a clear advantage in the 1st and 2nd calls. If so, you will consider that horse as the wire-to-wire threat. If not, you must consider both of them
(b) Next, check if any of the mid-pack pressing horses can compromise the front runnere(s). If not, we have a potential wire-to-wire horse. If the front runner(s) have a clear advantage in the 1st and 2nd call times, we have a strong potential of a wire-to-wire winner, and our work in the race is virtually over.
(c) If the front runner(s) do not have a clear advantage, and there are only 1 or 2 mid-pack horses that can compromise the front runners' chances, we'll use our PBS ratings.
(d) If the front runner(s) do not have a clear advantage and there are more than 2 mid-pack pressers that can compromise its lead, we'll favor our Projected Power Fraction Ratings.
(3) If there are more than two horses that have a tendency to take the lead, again check the 1st and 2nd call times.
(a) If one of the horses has a clear advantage in the 1st and 2nd call times, again, we have a potential wire-to-wire horse. In this case, we would again check the mid-pack pressing horses to see if there is a strong advantage. If the "speed-of-the-speed" horse has a clear advantage, we'll bet on a wire-to-wire victory.
(b) If it does not have an advantage, we'll fall back to our PPF Ratings.
(4) If more than half the field shows a propensity to be on the lead, then compare the times.
(a) If one of the early speed/lead horses has a clear advantage over the rest of them, that horse can potentially wire.
(b) If the mid-pack pressers do not compromise it, then we'll use the PBS ratings.
(c) If the mid-pack pressers potentially compromise the remaining early horse, we'll use the PPF Ratings.
(d) If the times of the early speed/lead horses are close, so that there is a potential pressure scenario, we'll either
(i) Use our PPF Ratings, or
(ii) If the pressure is strong - the 1st and 2nd call times are close and there are several horses wanting the lead, we'll bet the race purely on position and back the closers in the race.
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楊駿andrew410
註冊於: 09/09/2004
發帖數目: 7157 |  發表於: 2007-03-14 on 15:21
謝謝liup，mml，shatin兄的分析！
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liup
註冊於: 13/09/2003
發帖數目: 2628 | 發表於: 2007-03-14 on 15:29
Quote:
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On 2007-03-14 03:54, MML wrote:
Pace handicapping 大多將跑法分四類：
1. 放頭型 - Early, front runner, pace setter
2. 前置型 - Early presser, close stalker, stalker
3. 中置型 - Presser, mid-pack runner, middle
4. 後上型 - Sustained, closer, late closer
...
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MML不愧是會食飯的賽馬活字典, 多謝翻譯. ^_^
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MML
註冊於: 05/04/2003
發帖數目: 5650
| 發表於: 2007-03-14 on 20:06
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On 2007-03-13 17:34, MML wrote:
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On 2007-03-12 20:13, andrew410 wrote:
....「火流星」.....我選佢做膽只因多馬放有步速，佢更好衝，而且今季兩排外檔晨早埋欄跑慳住位，最後入倒位表現唔差，今次檔位更好，理應提升名次。
......
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其實 Cl-5 HV-1200, 黎黎去去都係"新勝威"、"起得勁"、"贏得多" .... 做快放馬。今次有其中兩件, 但係佢地近期好似越黎越唔快, 近仗"起得勁"放唔出, "贏得多"仲留住跑添。
今次王志偉騎"起得勁", 可能會記錯佢係"新勝威", 放出黎跑, 但唔知快唔快 ..... 唔知"齊齊掂"定"快上快"會搶到個 box seat.
(P.S. 側聞前仗 ST-1200, 薛達褀對"快上快"好有信心, 結果跑輸咗。)
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It's "快上快" which got the box seat. A good spare. ^_^
可惜"事必得"跑錯哂, 冇咗條 T; 下次喇！ 
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楊駿andrew410
註冊於: 09/09/2004
發帖數目: 7157 | 發表於: 2007-03-14 on 20:16
「火流星」入直路撐唔倒個位出來，最後姍姍來遲得第四，激死。
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楊駿andrew410
註冊於: 09/09/2004
發帖數目: 7157 | 發表於: 2007-03-15 on 11:02
第一場 7馬 必 威 3老少雙雄 6友 活 力 2拖 肥 糖 (W$26 Q$58.5)
第二場 9火 流 星 2齊 齊 掂 1贏 得 多 4好 當 家
第三場 4勝 德 寶 2彪形大漢 1好 彩 數 10神龍奏凱 7精 圖
第四場 3心 歡 暢 4波 板 糖 11喜在心頭 1過關博士 6銀 鑽 (W$24 PQ$102)
第五場 7金 好 彩 3華 心 寶 11飛 捷 5龍騰駿馬 6利 是 鋒 (W$33 PQ$48)
第六場 3奇 寵 8育成明駒 9八 對 半 1有 志 者 12金 錢 豹 (PQ$137)
第七場 8鼓浪旋風 9虎虎生威 5富有心得 2快 步 速 7多 利 高 (W$20.5 Q$89 T$465)
第八場 10好 芝 味 7安 進 6友誼第一 1零 用 錢 (PQ$54)
馬膽 第四場 3心 歡 暢 (W$24 P$14)
大題 勝 德 寶 彪形大漢 好 彩 數 (L)
全日成績 2Q1T
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